Cardiff South and Penarth: Constituency Report

Jack Grey

Cardiff South and Penarth is the largest constituency in Wales, created in 1983 with  a total of 76,499 eligible voters. Since the creation of the constituency the seat has been held by only 3 MPs, all of them Labour.

The constituency includes inner-city neighbourhoods such as Grangetown and Butetown, the redeveloped waterfront around Cardiff Bay and the town of Penarth in the Vale of Glamorgan.

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Labour is the most successful political party in modern Welsh politics having won the largest share of the vote at every UK General Election since 1922.

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The last MP for Cardiff South and Penarth, and the current candidate, is Stephen Doughty. Mr Doughty has held this position since a 2012 by-election triggered by the resignation of Alun Michael, who had held the position for 25 years.

Prior to Alun Michael, the only other MP to represent Cardiff South and Penarth was former prime minister James Callaghan. Mr Callaghan was leader of the Labour Party from 1976 to 1980. He resigned following a defeat to Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative Party.

In the 2012 by-election Mr Doughty won the seat with 47.3% of the vote and a majority of 5,334 over the Conservatives. The Lib Dems were third followed by Plaid Cymru.

The next election in 2015 saw a similar result with Mr Doughty winning with a majority of 7,453 votes over the Conservatives. UKIP received the third largest portion of the vote, with Plaid in fourth and the Lib Dems dropping to fifth. 

The 2017 snap election saw Labour win the seat with a majority of 14,864 seats and 59.5% share of votes cast. On both majority and vote share this was the largest win for Labour in the constituency since it’s creation in 1983. Plaid won the third highest amount of votes, with the Lib Dems in fourth.

UKIP received 942 votes in 2017, less than they have in any general election since 2005, an 85% drop in votes since 2015 where they achieved 6,423. 

One unknown factor heading into our current election is the emergence of The Brexit Party, with the party having never stood at a general election before. There has been much speculation as to whether Nigel Farage’s party will take more voters away from either Labour or the Conservatives. 

Nigel Farage's previous party, UKIP, saw their support diminish to less than 2% of the vote share in the last election. With the majority of Cardiff voting to remain in the EU referendum of 2016, the emergence of The Brexit Party is unlikely to challenge the leading two parties for the seat. 

The full list of candidates standing for Cardiff South and Penarth is as follows: 

Plaid Cymru - Nasir Adam

Green - Ken Barker 

Conservative - Phillippa Broom 

Labour Co-op -  Stephen Doughty 

Brexit Party - Tim Price

Liberal Democrats - Dan Schmeising
 

(List ordered in alphabetical order using candidate’s surname),